Where Are The Investment Opportunities in The Future?
Recently, the market policy 'magic' plunge all the way, although the direction of the temporary buffer consolidation still unknown. When the bottom round of adjustment? Austerity policy which investment opportunities? Credit Suisse's chief Asia economist Dong Tao, Thailand Liuxiang Ning, deputy director of the Joint Securities Research Institute Research and Dacheng Fund to help Sun Beilin guest of the total financial dialogue on hot issues market.
Tao Dong: the process of normalization of China's monetary environment is imperative, which includes both quantitative monetary policy adjustments, including price-based monetary policy adjustments. Until now, the adjustment of monetary policy to focus more on the quantitative adjustment of the reserve ratio is one of the more visible policy tools. If the current reserve ratio is the historical point of view a very high level, but we have to note that liquidity is the current record high, so I think there is further increase the reserve ratio of the space. At the same time, the price-based policy instruments that will be used sooner or later, because the emergence of a relatively large negative interest rates, and if the fixed cost of capital, the bank savings will continue to move, which will contribute to overheating of assets, but also contribute to economic speculation atmosphere, I think the possibility of a rate hike this year is quite large.
China Securities Daily News: U.S. dollar index fell below $ 76 was a rebound after the wave upward move out of the recent shelling and Ireland by the Korean debt crisis, the dollar strengthened several days, you think the dollar's adjustment to an end?
Tao Dong: the U.S. dollar in recent days to a considerable extent of funds seek refuge on the conditioned reflex, on the one hand, and some time ago in Europe even greater problems, and to leverage the other hand, is directly related to lower risk, the dollar some time ago has been a key lending currency carry trade, as to the risks to the U.S. offer to reduce the carry trade when the dollar will naturally arise in a rebound.
U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, the euro is weak currency, the currency is actually three in a worse than anyone else who is in the process. European bonds and deepening of the crisis spread, so that some time ago promising to re-flow back to the euro currency U.S. dollar assets, this trend is quite obvious. Personal debt crisis that the EU has not completely ended, the euro's weakness will continue for some time.
Consolidation is expected to rebound after sharp fall
China Securities Daily News: the current rally is the rise of quantitative easing by the United States; down by the tightening of domestic policy, after the recent plunge, the market has already digested it bad? Whether the adjustment round bottom?
Liu Xiangning: There are so many countries have introduced restrictive policies, and more recently the use of administrative means to control the prices, I think the next step is to look at the results, effects can not look straight out of policy, not hurts to cut feet, headache dare to change head.
I think the market is the point is a more balanced position, I think the market from 2300 up to this wave of price points without completing it, after all, a lot of stock price-earnings ratio is still relatively low, at this stage of the market may have a concussion, consolidation , then there will be consolidation upward momentum.
China Securities Daily News: In the external liquidity shock, the domestic currency and increase inflation Super-pressure, the contraction of liquidity or monetary policy will become the main line, the tightening is expected, how to tap investment opportunities in the market?
Sun Beilin: We have the configuration of the entire market is divided into three sections: the stability of plates, plates and new industries periodic plate.
Stability of the plate is our core configuration, for a long time in the future we can not worry about the ups and downs of this section, because it is subject to cyclical fluctuations is relatively small, the greater the benefit from the consumer to upgrade or consumption growth trends, both macro-control this trend, or a variety of positive and negative news, it produces the effects are small, so this part is the core configuration. Non-periodic [2465.54 -0.59%] of the species belong to the stability of most species, such as medicine, food and beverage, retail, TMT, the media and so on.
Although the index of periodic large plate, but we define it as more of a tactical configuration. As the tone of the whole big house to suppress or to control the flood of liquidity, so this section may not be good, more is to throw under the buy low, sell high valuation levels of the stage to grasp the opportunity.
Plate relative to the emerging industry for more than two, will see longer and longer sections. The next five to ten years there will be more than 50% increase. But there will certainly be divided, those who can sync with the industry growing faster than the industry or company size could turn 3 times, 5 times or 10 times, while others follow the industry, the future will gradually decline even in the middle of the competition mortality. Therefore, we define the strategic configuration of the plate, regardless of market ups and downs, there may be future growth 3 times, 5 times or 10 times the stock.
Investment opportunities under tight
China Securities Daily News: Seven new industry sub-sectors covered by dozens, hundreds of listed companies, market focus and rapid rotation, how to grasp the rhythm, selection of individual stocks?
Liu Xiangning: We had in April this year, been sort of new industries, new industries are sorted into seven, from the most promising to least promising of the order: energy conservation, new energy electric vehicles, equipment manufacturing, electronic information, new materials, bio-medicine.
We believe that the decision to seven industrial developments, the most critical factor is the market, emerging industry must keep up the combination of market applications, the industry in the end there is no market, people's applications are not widespread. Any connection with policies on the market, with the policy stimulus, the application of products to promote open, such as new energy vehicles, energy conservation and emission reduction. For another example, compare the recent speculation fire touch screen, consumers themselves have an incentive to enjoy the new things, Apple is not only produced a new product, it is more to change people's habits.
Seven industries, we are more cautious of biological medicine, we feel that the industry composition of the concept may be some more speculation. Biopharmaceutical is to change people's genes; there is a moral and ethical risks lie, In addition, most of the international bio-gene medicine for advanced cancer treatment, cutting-edge technology into large, time-consuming. The inevitable development of biopharmaceuticals is very long, it can not by national policy to stimulate immediate.
Liu Xiangning: consumer goods can be divided into daily consumer goods, consumer goods and, where appropriate, I personally felt that I could have a points system, that is, high-end consumer and low-end consumer goods. High-end consumer products mentioned here do not mean luxury, but a relatively high gross margins, the price is higher than the average number of varieties of products.
High-end consumer and low-end consumer goods in different economic backgrounds, different stages have different performance, and now countries are vigorously control inflation, so people can not rally the daily live of the product, but it has nothing to do with the general sectors of consumer products, the Government's tolerance degree is high, the price will not be restricted.
Sun Beilin: consumer species, we prefer to price things, as long as energy prices, its profit forecast flexibility, volatility of earnings will be very flexible, and each time will bring results faster prices rise, stock prices upward momentum will be stronger, so what is the preferred energy prices, not prices, can only be sold to raise the second best. Such as alcohol, medicine and other results can be achieved through price increases to the rapid growth of the company, we will be more optimistic about some.