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Market Analysis of lithium ion batteries

by:UFO      2020-01-05

In 2016, the concept of new energy vehicles and lithium batteries was boosted by the national strategy, and the growth was gratifying. With the opening of the annual report, the capital market has repeatedly reported good news. Last year, the transcripts were embarrassed, and the love of lithium batteries and new energy vehicles was riding the storm. Major companies around the world have followed the trend and accelerated the pace of layout in China. At the same time, benefiting from the steady growth of demand in the downstream 3C industry, China's lithium-ion batteries have huge growth space. Data show that nearly 0. 1 billion of the global new investment in lithium ion batteries will be concentrated in China in 2014, with 25 lithium ion battery projects with an annual investment of more than yuan, multinational companies such as Samsung SDI and LG Chem are actively deploying lithium-ion power batteries in China.

According to incomplete statistics of CNESA project Library, the growth rate of China's electrochemical energy storage market in the past five years is significantly higher than that of the global market, with an annual compound growth rate (2010 ~ 2015) It is 110%, which is 6 times that of the world, and the installed share of lithium ion batteries is 66%. 2014 China lithium battery yield to the 52. 0. 9 billion, with an annual compound growth rate of about 40%, accounting for about 70% of the world. In the first half of 2015, the cumulative output of lithium ion batteries was 24. 0. 2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3. 8%. According to the white paper on the development of lithium ion battery industry (Version 2015) Of 2014 China lithium-ion battery industry scale to 71. 5 billion yuan with than growth 15% is expected to 2015, China lithium-ion battery industry scale will reach 85 billion yuan with than growth 18. 9%.

The cumulative production of domestic new energy vehicles in 2015 was 34. 50 thousand vehicles, an increase of 3. 4 times. Among them, pure electric passenger car production 15. 220 thousand vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 2. 8 times, plug-in hybrid passenger car production 6. 260 thousand vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 2. 5 times; Pure electric commercial vehicle production 10. 250 thousand vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 10. 4 times, plug-in hybrid commercial vehicle production 2. 320 thousand vehicles, an increase of 91. 1%.

looking at the new energy policy and demand from the price trend of lithium carbonate

On the 19th, the third-party organization changed the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate from 17. 30 thousand yuan/ton revised to 170 thousand yuan/ton, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate from 14. 30 thousand yuan/ton revised to 13. 90 thousand yuan/ton, the average price of lithium metal is also revised at the same time.

The scattered transaction price is only one of the references. This amendment can be divided into three aspects:

(1) In terms of battery-grade lithium carbonate, in the short-term supply and demand game, the current time is 17. 50 thousand yuan- At a high level of 200 thousand yuan/ton, the transaction of battery-grade lithium carbonate was relatively light for the time being, and customers were cautious in purchasing. Some second-and third-tier suppliers slightly lowered their quotations;

(2) In terms of industrial grade, the production and shipment price of some domestic salt lakes is 130 thousand yuan-140 thousand yuan/ton, if pricing 140 thousand yuan- 150 thousand yuan/ton, the purchase intention of the middle and lower reaches of the current market environment is not strong;

(3)The hoarding part, due to 3- Since April, the price has been hovering at a high level. Previously, a few players with hype purposes gradually shipped goods, which had a certain impact on the average price of scattered orders. It is also worth noting that due to the small volume of scattered orders, short-term adjustments are not exactly the same as trends.

The supply and demand pattern has not changed. It is expected that the prices of leading enterprises will remain firm, while the agreed prices of large orders will more accurately reflect the market supply and demand. Although third-party organizations adjust the average price of scattered orders, we expect the agreed large unit price of industry leaders to remain firm, and this part of the price can more accurately reflect the mainstream supply and demand in the market, so it also has greater tracking value. Breakdown:


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