Diaphragm, the next material that will not be available?
Diaphragm products are becoming increasingly in demand. Ningde Times, the leading power battery, China Innovation Aviation and other recent cluster upstream suppliers "advance payment", this unusual phenomenon, indicates that in 2022, the competition for diaphragm battery enterprises will be extremely fierce.
"The next slow battery enterprises, it is likely to buy the goods."
Recently, Shanghai Enjie, a subsidiary of Enjie Holding Co., LTD., signed an agreement with CSIA, in which Shanghai Enjie promised to supply cSIA with less than 2.5 billion yuan of diaphragm in 2022, and CSIA will pay Shanghai ENjie 100 million yuan of advance payment. According to the analysis of Zheshang Securities, assuming that in 2022, the diaphragm purchase price including tax is about 2.8 yuan/square meter, 2.5 billion orders correspond to the diaphragm purchase volume of about 890 million square meters, corresponding to the lithium battery output of about 53.4GWh.
Not long before this, Shanghai Enjie also signed a diaphragm agreement with an overseas large auto company, in 2022-2024, it will guarantee the supply of diaphragm products to a large overseas auto company will not exceed 1.65 billion square meters; From 2025, the quantity of diaphragm products shall not exceed 900 million square meters per year. So, by 2025 the total supply of diaphragm is not more than 2.55 billion square meters. According to the algorithm of the above institutions, the corresponding battery output can be roughly calculated to be about 153GWh, and the order amount is at least 7 billion yuan.
Earlier, at the end of 2021, Ningde Times, which is "always famous for its strength", also paid an advance payment of 850 million yuan to Enjie Stock to guarantee the supply of wet diaphragm by Shanghai Enjie to Ningde Times in 2022, with a total amount of about 5.178 billion yuan excluding taxes. Also according to the above algorithm, roughly estimated ningde times diaphragm purchase volume is about 1.84 billion square meters, corresponding to the battery output of about 110GWh.
It can be seen that the purchase quantity and amount involved in the above several diaphragm orders are not small, and the corresponding battery output is dozens or hundreds of GWh. In this zheshang Securities research report, the intensive warranty agreement again verified the degree of diaphragm shortage in 2022, diaphragm quality capacity in short supply, price will gradually spread.
In this situation, battery enterprises are increasing the purchase of diaphragm, diaphragm manufacturers orders. In December last year, Anhui Mei-Xin, a subsidiary holding by Mei-Link New Materials, signed a wet diaphragm procurement contract with Perissin, and anhui Mei-Xin will supply no less than 200 million square meters from 2022 to 2024. In August last year, Starsource signed an agreement with LG New Energy to supply wet coated diaphragm to LG New Energy for about 4.311 billion yuan. In addition, Starsource has also signed an agreement with Northvolt with a contract value of no more than 3.34 billion yuan.
There is a huge gap in supply
Industry data shows that in 2021, the global production of lithium electric diaphragm will be 10.55 billion square meters, of which 7.31 billion square meters will be produced in China. It is estimated that the global demand for lithium electric diaphragm will exceed 13.5 billion square meters in 2022, and the demand increment will exceed 3 billion square meters. However, in 2022, the global capacity of new diaphragm master coil is not more than 5 billion square meters. Considering the capacity climb and yield, the actual effective new output is less than 2 billion square meters, and there is an obvious gap.
Industry analysis believes that after 2022, the demand for new energy vehicles in China, the United States and Europe will continue to drive the wet diaphragm demand, and BYD blade battery and energy storage market will drive the dry diaphragm demand. From the domestic point of view, from 2022, the domestic diaphragm supply and demand relationship gradually changed to demand, lithium battery demand growth rapidly, leading to a sharp rise in diaphragm demand, but the capacity of domestic diaphragm enterprises is limited, the supply has been unable to meet the demand. At the same time, the diaphragm industry there is a short-term price catalytic.
In the long term, according to the international agency W-Scope estimates, by 2025 the global market size of lithium battery is close to 1400GWh, the demand for diaphragm will reach 20 billion square meters; By 2030, the global market size of lithium battery may exceed 3000GWh, and the demand for diaphragm will be close to 32 billion square meters, 5.3 times of the volume in 2020.
In terms of amount, W-Scope expects that only in 2025 the global base film profit margin is expected to reach 4.86 billion yuan, coating film profit margin of about 6.3 billion yuan, so the overall profit margin of the diaphragm industry is expected to reach about 11 billion yuan in 5 years.
Short-term supply increases are limited
Under the huge demand expectation, diaphragm enterprises have increased production expansion efforts. In December last year, LAN Ketu launched high-end lithium battery diaphragm project plan, planning a total investment of 13 billion yuan in the construction and layout of 11 bases nationwide, the new large width ultra-high strength diaphragm production line 52, estimated annual capacity of about 7.5 billion square meters.
The leader enjie shares in November last year to raise no more than 12.8 billion yuan for chongqing Enjie, Jiangsu Enjie, Suzhou Jieli and other diaphragm projects. In addition, Enjie has also signed agreements with Yiwei Lithium Energy and Ningde Times to jointly construct 1.6 billion square meters wet lithium electric diaphragm and coating film project and 3.6 billion square meters wet/dry diaphragm project respectively.
Xingyuan material is not weak, plans to invest 10 billion yuan in Nantong diaphragm project, will build an annual output of 3 billion square meters of wet diaphragm and coated diaphragm. In addition, sinoma planned to invest 895 million yuan last November to build a "wet diaphragm production line project with an annual output of 320 million square meters for lithium batteries". In May of the same year, Sinoma Lithium Film invested and built "an annual output of 1.04 billion square meters of lithium ion battery diaphragm production line" in Nanjing, with a total investment of about 3.753 billion yuan.
It is worth noting that, due to the continuous hot demand in the downstream market, lithium diaphragm has attracted many enterprises in other fields, such as constant force petrochemical in the petrochemical field, conch entrepreneurship in the field of environmental protection, and Changyang Technology in the photoelectric field.
It is understood that last December, Hengli Petrochemical wet diaphragm production line equipment procurement signing ceremony held in Suzhou. Comfort New Materials, a subsidiary of Hengli Petrochemical, will introduce 12 wet-process lithium battery diaphragm production lines from Shiura Machinery Co., Ltd. of Japan and Qingdao Zhongkehualian New Materials Co., LTD., with an annual capacity of 1.6 billion square meters.
Conch entrepreneurship through a wholly-owned subsidiary anhui Sea innovation wet diaphragm field company hengchuan technology cut in, hengchuan Technology Taizhou base planning capacity of 1 billion square meters/year. In September last year, Changyang Technology invested 591 million yuan to construct the "annual output of 560 million square meters of lithium ion battery diaphragm project" through hefei Changyang, a wholly-owned subsidiary.
Although diaphragm production expansion enthusiasm is high, but the market believes that due to the diaphragm industry has a large investment, long construction cycle, low yield characteristics, so diaphragm production cycle is long, is expected to be limited in the future diaphragm capacity increment. In the next 1-2 years, diaphragm production expansion will mainly be concentrated in leading enterprises, diaphragm supply increment is limited, and the industry supply and demand mismatch pattern is expected to continue.